Futuristic study of socio-cultural macro-threats of the Islamic Republic of Iran in a 5-year horizon (2024-2029)

One of the types of threats to political systems that can face serious challenges to the national security of countries in the medium and long term is socio-cultural threats. These types of threats, according to the type and components of their measurement, are among the threats that neglecting them in the medium term can have surprising and destructive effects on the social security and even the national security of the countries in the long term. This research seeks to answer these questions: what are the socio-cultural threats facing the Islamic Republic of Iran in the five-year horizon? Based on the criteria for measuring the occurrence of threats, what is the probability of their occurrence in the future horizon? What measures should be taken in the face of these threats? The mixed research approach is exploratory and two methods of environmental survey of texts (books, articles, reports, etc.) and expert questionnaire were used to collect information. Its statistical population is 10 scientific and academic experts whose opinions were obtained by preparing an expert questionnaire. The findings of the research show that in addition to common and conventional cultural and social threats, there are 9 major and priority threats, reduction of social capital, economic and social corruption, weakening of national identity, ethnic and religious challenges, social and economic gaps,Decrease in the level of human development, change in lifestyle, increase in social damage and cognitive-perceptual war are the most important threats to the Islamic Republic of Iran in the five-year horizon.